Fight analysis: 4 boxers who outfought Mayweather, Jr (Part 1)

By Marv Dumon - Intro: Many boxing analysts and gamblers initially peg Floyd Mayweather, Jr (40-0) as a slight betting favorite over WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (50-3-2). These odds are sensible, and probably correct. It's tough to argue with an omnipotent marketplace.

However, we explore four boxers that have given Mayweather, Jr (either temporary or sustained) problems in the ring. There are several potential reasons for avoiding the welterweights in his division. Floyd encountered problems with these four boxers, and those avoided welterweights would exacerbate Floyd's tactical risks. These lessons can be leveraged by Freddie Roach and Manny Pacquiao, and lay the foundation for a strategic war plan.

Tale of the Tape:

Age: Manny: 31 Floyd: 33 ( By fight night )

[No advantage for either fighter. Floyd is a fresher fighter. Manny has been more active.]

Height: Manny: 5' 6.5" Floyd: 5' 8"

[Slight advantage for Mayweather, Jr. Manny can somewhat negate this advantage by fighting low, as well as, by bobbing and weaving which could expose Floyd's body to pugilistic explosions.]

Reach: Manny: 67" Floyd: 72"

[Herein lies Manny's biggest disadvantage - he gives up a 5 inch reach against a fighter with the best jab in the sport, both in quickness and accuracy. This factors into Floyd as an early betting favorite.]

Official Weigh-in: Manny: 145 lbs (est) Floyd: 147 lbs (est)

[Undoubtedly, the weight limit is a main negotiating point between both camps. Top Rank's Bob Arum will fight for 145 lbs, while Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions will aim for a full 147 lb welterweight weight limit. This is a big variable in the fight. Floyd officially weighed in against Juan Manuel Marquez at 146 lbs, suggesting that he may be uncomfortable coming in at 145 lbs.]

Fighting Weight: Manny: 150 lbs (est) Floyd: 157 lbs (est)

[Size is Manny's second disadvantage. However, the bigger opponent in this case will be just as fast, and just as smart. Floyd can adjust to an opponent's gameplan in real time. While Manny is a master in his own right, Freddie Roach's advice for adjustments during the fight comes in three-minute intervals, at the end of each round. Something Floyd does not have to wait for. This makes Roach's and Pac's initial battleplan going into the fight that much more critical for success. Most likely, they will concoct a Plan A, a Plan B, and a Plan C so that Manny, like Floyd, can also adjust in real time.]

# 1

2002: Jose Luis Castillo 1

Rounds 5 and 6

Rounds 10 and 11

Analysis: In rounds 5 and 6, Mexican lightweight champion Jose Luis Castillo brilliantly lures Mayweather into a physical fight. Castillo played rough, and boxed dirty - holding Mayweather and often hitting him late (after a referee's break). A roughed up Mayweather underwent spurts of ineffectiveness, and there were times in which he was simply uncomfortable being inside the ring. However, it must also be noted that this fight took place in 2002 and Floyd has since morphed into a defensive wizard.

In rounds 10 and 11, Floyd was forced to aggressively fight Castillo due to the closer than expected scorecards. Against Manny, Floyd's foremost priority will be to win the early rounds in order to avoid direct engagement with the southpaw dynamo. The Filipino packs a more powerful punch than Castillo. Additionally, Pacquiao's unorthodox style, weaving attack, and blazing speed pose more problems. This dynamic (the perceived scores entering the final rounds) is the most critical variable to how the fight plays out in the pound-for-pound "championship rounds."

Comments: If Pacquiao should emerge victorious against Mayweather, and that's an if, the first Castillo fight serves as a shining expose into Floyd's major weakness. He is a fragile fighter with a suspect chin, and he will wear down later in the rounds. "Master" Roach knows this. Floyd will be bigger than Manny - effectively a junior middleweight - but the dynamic Pacquiao also packs explosive power in both fists.

Did Floyd really beat Castillo in the first bout? Officially yes. Unofficially, that is debatable. The statistics are shockingly revealing. Through the first nine rounds, both men were just as accurate with power punches (Castillo, 44% to Mayweather, 43%). However, Castillo landed a whopping 98 power shots out of 228 thrown to Floyd's 37 of 87 power shots. Castillo's higher work rate was effective against Floyd. It was a close call for the three judges. Floyd won a hotly contested decision.

Lesson # 1.1: Floyd will need to make Manny pay for being the more active fighter. That is accomplished through timing Manny when he moves in, with accurate and quick jabs from a safe distance, and counters. Unfortunately for Pacquiao's camp, Floyd is the best fighter in the sport to accomplish all three. If Floyd can do these three things (timing, accurate jabs, and counters) for the first three or four rounds, the fight is over. And Manny will break down by round 8.

Lesson # 1.2: Conversely, Castillo has provided Roach and Pacquiao with a template for putting a serious hurt on Floyd. Manny's power in both hands, combined with a higher work rate, can both wear down the bigger opponent as well as impress judges. The latter will be more critical. Because this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Here, three judges will decide who wins the "Fight of the Century."

Caveat: The Floyd version that fought Marquez is much better and bigger than the Floyd who showed up to fight Castillo.

# 2

2006: Zab Judah

Round 1

Round 2

Judah's size is very similar to Pacquiao's. Zab stands at 5' 7" tall, with a 22" arm length (compared to Floyd's 26" arm length). However, a relatively stationary Judah appeared to have outboxed Mayweather, Jr with jabs. Then-welterweight champion Judah's quick jabs landed on Floyd despite having shorter arms.

Due to the scoring favor the first couple of rounds, Floyd was forced to adjust and fight more aggressively. Unfortunately for Judah, he simply could not keep up with Mayweather's handspeed and skills.

During the second round, Zab caught Floyd with a lightning quick right as Mayweather lunged forward. This should have been scored a knockdown (which it was not) since Floyd's gloves grazed the ring. This punch underscores Floyd's vulnerability as a fighter when he attacks. Manny will have opportunities to counter Floyd. However, the flip side is also true. Manny will be vulnerable to Floyd's counters, especially if Manny fully commits on his jabs. Think Erik Morales 1 and the fights with Juan Manuel Marquez.

Lesson # 2.1:

If Judah could land on this version (2006) of Floyd, so can Manny. Mayweather is an orthodox right-handed boxer (with his left as his lead front hand). He is surprisingly vulnerable to the body when he chooses to have a more offensive stance. However, Mayweather had a pretty squared up shoulder in facing Zab, and used less of a shoulder roll defense. In other words, Floyd was not defensively oriented during the first two rounds. This may, or may not, be the case versus a dangerous southpaw like Manny. Therefore, we should be careful from comparing apples and oranges.

The Judah fight does show that Floyd is hittable, even when backing up. Remember, Judah fought with a 22" arm length (similar to Manny's 23") compared to Floyd's 26". Was this part of a brilliant strategy by the Mayweather camp to draw in Judah - to make him come forward? Possibly. This may have been a trick/ploy from Floyd. By being aggressive himself, he invited Judah's attack so Floyd could outclass him with accurate counters. As Judah grew in (false) confidence, Floyd outboxed Judah in the later rounds. Roach and Pacquiao may have used this same strategy against Cotto. Manny pretended to be vulnerable in the first two rounds to invite Cotto forward, and to make Cotto vulnerable by letting the Puerto Rican throw his lead left jabs (his best punch, along with the left hook to the body). This allowed Manny to outclass an opened up Cotto, who became susceptible to counters to the body from Manny's left, and to blows to the head from Manny's right hook.

Lesson # 2.2: The outcome of Manny Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather, Jr will be decided in the first four rounds (with an estimated 80% confidence level). Just like chess - how you open up the board dictates how the pieces will be positioned and played for the duration of the game. The opening determines two military principles: (1) the operational tempo - the "rhythm," and speed with which your forces engage the enemy. For instance, the U.S. Navy Seals have a "shock and awe" tempo against its adversaries. And, (2) the "center of gravity" - where your forces/power are concentrated. Is the "center of gravity" to the left, to the right, in the middle, against the ropes, is it dispersed? Roach will want a definable and tangible center of gravity. Floyd will want a dispersed and undefinable center of gravity. At the very least, Floyd wants a dynamic and constantly shifting center of gravity so that his accurate punches can slow down and/or stop a probably advancing Pacquiao.

Analogy:

A good analogy to use is this. Manny is like a roving tank looking to bulldoze his enemy once engaged - or if he can engage at all. Floyd will be hiding with his camouflage uniform setting up all kinds of landmines and anti-personnel devices to (hopefully) blow up that roving tank.

Samurai vs Ninja.

If there is a deciding factor for either fighter in the first four rounds, that reveals our winner (again, probably with an 80% confidence level). The main unpredictability in the later rounds comes with Manny's capability of knocking down Floyd once - which would alter the scorecards.

Lesson # 2.3: A peak-shape Pacquaio probably enjoys less than a 10% or 15% chance of stopping a full-fledged junior middleweight Floyd by KO or TKO. Floyd will not stop Manny either (The Filipino was able to walk through Miguel Cotto's heaviest blows), unless of course Floyd lands a tremendous punch (which is possible). By Manny in peak-shape, we mean that Manny is not training in Baguio City, Cebu, or Manila.

It will be a highly foolish and over-confident move by Team Pacquiao to train in the Philippines for this fight. Unfortunately for the People's Champ, he is constantly being bothered by "yes men," a** kissers, parasites, useless hangers on, beggars, and others pitching business deals. Manny has indicated that he would like to train in the Philippines for his next fight. From a political and business standpoint, this is prudent. He has roughly $10 million in campaign funds at stake for his May 2010 congressional electoral bid - and in his first campaign in 2007, it was reported that people simply stole his political war chest.

However, in terms of boxing, training in the Philippines will be a colossal strategic blunder against Floyd Mayweather, Jr. The Mayweather camp knows this and have their fingers crossed. Manny may be a seven time titlist in seven weight classes, but this is an area where the Titanic will be sailing full speed in the northern Atlantic confident that it can crush anything in its path, including glaciers. Congressional candidate Pacquiao may win an election. But if he goes down this path of distraction, he will lose the fight of the century. As Roach said, Manny is incapable of succeeding in both (at the same time). This will be a critical power struggle to watch and follow. That is, the power struggle between Pacquiao and Roach. Because we can already surmise that Manny will insist on Baguio or somewhere else in the Philippines. Roach will try to do what is best - he may be called "Master," but he may only have partial control of training now, at this stage of Manny's career. Training in the archipelago would be suicidal against Floyd.

The bombardment of distractions from politicians, the entertainment industry, and from the media will be enormous. History always gives us clues. When the Americans fought the Japanese in the second world war, did they place all their eggs in Bataan and Corregidor? No, at the last minute they pulled out key personnel (such as General Douglas MacArthur) in order to plan and stage a comeback. If this fight is scheduled for May or June, essentially Manny has a choice to make. Politics or boxing? Which one. Against the greatest defensive wizard of the past 10 years, this is a mutually exclusive choice. Even President Franklin Roosevelt had to make a choice. Germany or Japan? He prioritized Germany first. Then Japan. If the U.S. fought both theaters with equal prioritization at the same time, we may be yelling Heil Hitler! every morning today on our way to work or school.

Concentration of forces - center of gravity - is an inviolable principle of warfare. There are no exceptions to this rule. Zero. For thousands of years, this has been a tried and tested doctrine; from the days of warring Chinese kingdoms; to the Great Crusades that sought to free Jerusalem from the Muslims - and the use of enormously constructed siege towers; to Genghis Khan's use of heavy cavalry against fortified towns, to Hannibal the Annihilator using guerilla warfare and tactical advantages from the weather and landscape against the numerically superior ancient Roman legions; to Julius Caesar erecting two fortified walls to trap the numerically superior Gauls inside their city on a hill, and to prevent reinforcements from rescuing the trapped city. Will Manny learn the hard way? Four thousand years of history says "Yes."

The Pacquiao that embarrassed Oscar de la Hoya was probably the best version of Manny Pacquiao ever. That version was flawless, and better than the one who fought Miguel Cotto. Which brings us to our third boxer.

Caveat: The Floyd version that fought Marquez is much better and bigger than the Floyd who showed up to fight Castillo or Judah.

For more Pacquiao vs Mayweather news updates, visit http://pacquiao-vs-mayweather.cebuspace.com/.

Source: examiner.com