Saturday, December 5, 2009

Manny Pacquiao: "I got Money to blow"

By Dennis "dSource" Guillermo - WARNING: This is not intended for the old and the uncool. Just kidding. It's just that all this excitement and tension from Pacquiao-Mayweather finally happening has gotten me flipping like a flipping Filipino kid in a Chocnut shop. It's like a sugar high, a dream come true and that feeling you get when you are about to open a large present under the Christmas tree. And frankly, it is what it is- an early Christmas gift from boxing to it's loyal fans after years of testing their resolve. If you are a Knicks fan, it's something kinda close, except that only one dude named LeBron James coming to the Bronx can give them the same sense of redemption.

So allow me to unload some of the random things that I've been thinking about and feedback from fight fans since this morning upon hearing about this proposed bout almost finally getting sealed and finalized.

If Pacquiao's new "meteor descending from outer space tattoo" on his left forearm makes contact on Floyd's chin, it would definitely leave a trail of destruction on Planet Mayweather and leave "Money" looking like 2012.

We already know Mayweather will box, dance, avoid and run all night against Pacquiao which could very well mean a unanimous decision victory for him, BUT, you got to understand, Pacquiao is a southpaw, so that shoulder roll defensive technique won't be as effective. And somehow, people still haven't learned their lesson and still underestimate Pacquiao's intelligence in the ring. And can you imagine how loud the "boos" will be once Floyd goes on his skates against Manny? Manny will eventually force Floyd to fight. This won't be a repeat of "The World Awaits" trust me.

A lot of people are worrying about Pacquiao's health, well, honestly I think he was in worse shape after his rematch against Marquez and fought Diaz just 3 months after. Word from my insiders tell me Manny is feeling brand new these days. The busted ear drum will heal and the cauliflower ear is no big deal. Just ask all the high school wrestlers and MMA fighters out there. Pacquiao is built from sterner stuff. Actually a fight before the elections to me is more favorable than doing it after. Pacquiao will be drained by the campaigning process in the Philippines. Trust me, I know. I got family inside politics. It could be more punishing than 2 months of training at the Wild Card Gym. Plus, Pacquiao's body is still in good shape from his Cotto training. Didn't Freddie Roach himself say not too long ago that he prefers Manny to stay active rather than take long breaks? And at the end of the day, Pacquiao will not agree to fight on March 13 if he didn't feel like his body wasn't up to it. End of argument.

Have you heard Money May's most popular rap single titled "Yep"? Well it goes something like this:



Well the video proved two things: 1) A nice beat isn't enough to make a talentless wannabe rapper sound good. 2) Floyd Mayweather Jr. knows how to count to 10 - Yep!!!

Not that Pacquiao is any good at singing either. But heck, how fun would it be to see these two go on a rap battle? And I got the perfect track and lyrics for Pac to spit at Money.

I Got Money To Blow (originally by Bird Man feat. Drake and Lil Wayne - if you don't know, you're too old! Kidding, kidding... I don't want to offend my buddy Marley in NYC. But then again, that guy is more up to date than most cats my age. Shoot, only Marley can talk about writing a crossover article about Lady Gaga and get away with it.)

Lyrics:

[Intro - Pacman & Drake]

Yeah
Coming to you live from
City of… GensanHollywoodVegas
So what it do young pinja? (pinoy ninja), 100

[Verse 1 - Pacman]
I am on a 24 hour
Tinola diet, hookin’ while I’m slippin’
I encourage you to try it
I’m probably just sayin’ that cause I don’t get hit by it
Hatton and Cotto went down like a Vegas chic
Boy I’m on that fly sh%t
I am what everybody in my past don’t want me to be
Guess what I made it
I’m the motherlovin’ man
I just want you to see
Come take a look, get a load of this slugger
Quit fronting on me
Don’t come around and try to gas me up
I like runnin’ on E
I… I… I… I’m ready to chase Floyd all night
He can be Peter Pan Imma be Captain Hook
And my new Ferrari faster than Floyd's Bentley
He can try to run but Imma out-quick him quickly

Damn where my roof just go?
Just like Money when he feels my Marco Bolo
He gon lose his thoughts and repeat "damn where my roof just go?"
Top slipped off like Janet at the Superbowl
I got ‘em

[Chorus - Drake]
They can’t help it and I can’t blame them
Since I got famous
They ducking me like Donald...
On March 13, I got "Money" to blow
Gettin’ it in
Letting these bums fall
Be cutting his skin
I got "Money" to blow-oh oh ohh
Oh oh ohh, oh oh ohh, I got oh oh ohh
I got money to blow-oh oh ohh
Oh oh ohh, oh oh ohh, got "Money" to blow

From the forums:

Poster "Perro" at boxingscene.com wrote:

VS Hatton, Floyd only landed 129 in 10 rounds; Manny landed 73 in two! For you geniuses, that's...

Pacquiao - 37 punches per round @ 57%

Mayweather - 13 punches per round @ 39%

And against Oscar, Manny out-landed Floyd, 224 to 207 in only 8 rounds to Floyd's full 12 rounds.

And lastly, short and sweet. Don't expect this fight happening anywhere else other than Las Vegas. nufsed!

There you go... Just some random thoughts. I know some of you might not be able to relate, but hey, at least you can say you are a tad bit "cooler" now. You know them haters hate cause they simply can't relate. I take risks like Pacquiao, unlike others I don't play it safe. Love it, hate it, it's all good. Let the chips fall where they may.

And for the record, I don't hate Floyd Mayweather Jr. He will pose a lot of problems for Pacquiao and is a defensive wizard in the ring. Now before I hear Floyd start saying "Stop jocking me", I simply believe Pacquiao will beat him. Real talk.

For more Pacquiao vs Mayweather news updates, visit http://pacquiao-vs-mayweather.cebuspace.com/.

Source: examiner.com

Pacquiao vs Mayweather likely for March


Manny Pacquiao likely will fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. on March 13 after agreeing to a proposal from promoter Bob Arum on Friday.

Arum presented "what he thought was the best proposal he can bring" during a two-hour breakfast meeting with Pacquiao in Manila, said Michael Koncz, an adviser of the Philippine boxing idol.

"Manny has some additional requirements, requests, which Arum didn't think was a problem," Koncz said. "The requests of Manny were so realistic that Arum doesn't feel it's a problem and it's pretty much a done deal."

He said the contract still needs "fine-tuning," declining to elaborate.

"We all believe that it will be done," Koncz said.

In an interview with GMA television, Pacquiao said, "March 13 is OK."

"The difference between Floyd and others I have fought is that Floyd makes a lot of trash talk that should not be imitated by young people," he said.

Arum could not be reached for comment.

If the deal is completed, the bout would be contested at 147 pounds for the welterweight title, a source told ESPN.com's Dan Rafael.

Koncz, who is in charge of Pacquiao's boxing promotion company in Nevada, said Pacquiao is "very comfortable" with the date.

Pacquiao is running for a congressional seat in May 2010 elections and official campaigning won't start before April.

If the bout goes ahead, it will match two men regarded as the best pound-for-pound fighters.

Boxing fans have been looking forward to a superfight between Pacquiao and the undefeated Mayweather after the Filipino champion defeated Miguel Cotto last month.

The March 13 date comes four months after the Cotto fight -- a shorter period of time than the six months after Pacquiao defeated Ricky Hatton. But Koncz said it will be enough time for Pacquiao to get back in shape.

"Nobody knows his body better than Manny," he said. "If Manny feels that that's plenty of time to rest and recover, then you know, he has to do what he feels is right."

He said Pacquiao "cannot train for more than seven weeks."

If the fight is agreed upon, there likely would be a Jan. 11 news conference in New York to announce it. The bout could be the richest ever, assuming pay-per-view projections are accurate.

Representatives of the Superdome in New Orleans and the new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas have expressed interest in hosting the fight, as has the MGM Grand hotel-casino in Las Vegas, where the fighters have had their biggest fights. There is also a proposal for a 30,000-seat temporary stadium on the Las Vegas Strip across from the Wynn resort.

Oddsmakers are already taking bets on the fight, with most making Mayweather a slight favorite.

Source: sports.espn.go.com

Friday, December 4, 2009

Roach: Manny Pacquiao is a machine but needs 12-week camp for Mayweather

By Gareth A Davies - Freddie Roach, in Newcastle, England, where he is overseeing Amir Khan’s WBA 140lb title defence against Dmitriy Salita here on Saturday night, insists that his Filipino dynamo “is a machine” but revealed at the head to head news conference that he would rather see Manny Pacquiao fight Floyd Mayweather in May than March 2010.

“We’re going to need a 12-week camp for Mayweather, because we need to look at all the possibilities and work everything out for this fight,” Roach told me. “The March date would be too early. It has got to be May.”

As to Pacquiao being “a machine”, Roach said: “I’ve had the opportunity to work with a lot of great fighters. From day 1 until now everything we’ve worked on has come into play. He’s a dangerous guy at this point in his life. He’s a machine. You wind him up, and let him go. He’s different. How many guys can go from 112lbs to 147lbs and still be competitive. He’s a throwback. Guys like him come once in a lifetime.”



For more Pacquiao vs Mayweather news updates, visit http://pacquiao-vs-mayweather.cebuspace.com/.

Source: blogs.telegraph.co.uk

Pacquiao vs Mayweather Unofficial 24/7 Teaser


Pacquiao vs Mayweather Unofficial 24/7 Teaser

Manny Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather Jr. Teaser


Pacquiao vs Mayweather Teaser

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Roy Jones, Jr. officially hands March 13 HBO date to Arum, Pacquiao, and Mayweather

By Matt Stolow - Roy Jones, Jr. just handed Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr. the March 13 date that they may covet after he was knocked out in a single stunning round by Danny Green in Australia earlier today.

Obviously I'm being facetious as his tentative HBO Pay-Per-View date with Bernard Hopkins has suffered a serious blow with the loss by the 40-year-old Jones to the 36 -year-old Green.

Jones had to win the Green fight for the Hopkins fight to happen on HBO.

Hopkins fights later tonight live on the Versus Network (7 PM Central) and they will have plenty of time to broadcast the Green - Jones highlights as they expected to do anyway.

It was from all reports a clean knockout without controversy.

"We don't make excuses. It was a great fight by Danny," said Jones

Jones will enjoy a long and quiet, solemn plane ride home to contemplate his future as a viable fighter as we head into 2010.

I don't see any positives Jones can look to as to continuing to fight on and this may finally signal the official end to his obvious future Hall of Fame career.

Although Green was a title holder years ago at light heavyweight, he himself had come out of retirement and at best was considered a come backing second - tier fighter looking for a payday.

Jones has had his promoter's license (Square Ring Promotions) for several years and has a full staff of employees and a stable of young fighters so he could easily ease into the role of full - time promoter out of his Pensacola, Florida offices.

I'm hoping Jones takes this stunning setback seriously and after a short rest makes it official that he's hanging up the gloves for good.

However, Jones is one of the most stubborn individuals I know and this is a difficult decision for him. His stubbornness is probably part of what has made him successful in his career but doors are going to close on him after this loss to Green.

This loss finally gives independent TV producers the opportunity to say no to the great Roy Jones, Jr.




For more Pacquiao vs Mayweather news updates, visit http://pacquiao-vs-mayweather.cebuspace.com/.

Source: examiner.com

Arum hand delivers Mayweather offer that Pacquiao can't refuse

By Michel Marley - As you read this, a soon-to-turn-age-78-year-old named Robert Arum is piling up the frequent flyer miles from Las Vegas to Manila.

The Top Rank Top Dog isn’t going to the Philippines to discuss Sarangani local politics with Manny Pacquiao.

And he's not traveling through all those time zones and across the International Date Line to extend sympathy because Sports Illustrated tabbed Yankees superstar Derek Jeter as Sportsman of the Year over the more deserving National Fist.

He’s going to see his star client with a firm deal in hand for Pacman to face undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr. on March 13 in a Las vegas mega bout.

Forget the smokescreens about Pacman fighting junior middleweight champ and rabbinical student Yuri Foreman. And ditto for the one about Mayweather going to Manchester to beat up Matthew Hatton or, as we like to refer to him, Matty Hatty.

Arum has what he feels is a fair and viable deal in hand and he will present same to Pacman for a thumbs up or a thumbs down

If Pacquiao is amenable, septuagenarian Arum might even seal the big deal before his Dec. 8 bithday and well before Dec. 17, when Megamanny turns age 31.

They used to say, “Don’t trust anyone over 30” back in the New Age, Woodstock Generation but promoter and fighter have come to trust each other as they have piled up millions of dollars in tandem in recent Pacquiao bouts, victories all for the Pinoy Idol.

It’s an easy guess that, at least publicly, the revenue split will be said to be 50-50 and I feel that is fair to both sides. Mayweather is unbeaten, he is an American fighting in his homeland and he used to occupy the Pound For Pound throne which now belongs to Pacman.

The working date is March 13 and, again, I totally discount Texas Stadium.

What happens in Vegas won’t stay there when casino operators work together to land this whopper, this once in a generation mega fight.

When Vegas steps up, it will be, “Fumble, Jerry Jones, fumble Cowboys!”

Fight fans won’t have to beware the Ides of March, instead they will embrace it for the Biggest fight That Can Possibly Be Made is coming to fruition.

What say you, Megamanny?

The money is right, the legacy is there for the taking.

In this case, I hope Pacquiao does like Jim Carrey in that movie.

I hope Pacquiao is a “Yes Man.”

Arum lands in Manila bearing an offer, Manny, that you can’t refuse.

It's your move now, Manny.



For more Pacquiao vs Mayweather news updates, visit http://pacquiao-vs-mayweather.cebuspace.com/.

Source: examiner.com

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Pacquiao promises Mayweather pain: "There will be some lingering ill-feelings"

By Dennis "dSource" Guillermo - As the saying goes, a dog that is ready to bite doesn't do a lot of barking. And as short as the four words he uttered to officially confirm his desire to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr.- anytime, anywhere- when he said "For the record, yes," Manny Pacquiao's choppers are sharp, and ready to gobble up another big name to add to his already legendary resume.

This one will be different however. And Pacquiao may have very well saved the best for last. Truth be told, I would not want to be "Money" Mayweather when he faces the Pac Man in the ring whenever, wherever- if ever. I can even say this without any least bit of exaggeration. I'm afraid for Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Why you ask? Simple. The mini-monster that has been destroying boxing legend after boxing legend is actually mad for the first time. In an interview with GMA TV in the Philippines not too long ago, Pacquiao, who admittedly is annoyed with all the baseless accusations the Father-and-son team of the Mayweathers have done to discredit him and link his name to steroids (the Nevada State Athletic Commission has repeatedly stated Pacquiao has never failed their intensive drug tests) said,

"I consulted my attorney about the issue, and he (Mayweather Sr.) got scared, so he withdrew all his accusations. He said that he was just joking around, and that the statement that he made about me using steroids wasn't true."

and added,

"If our fight happens... maybe he should warn his son that there will be some lingering ill-feelings there because of his accusations."

I don't know about you and I'm telling you the cultural difference between Filipinos and African-Americans have something to do with this case because I have never heard Manny make any form of warning or threat of this nature in the past. Granted he was smiling when he made the comment, but I can read through his words and the manner in which he said the statement that Pacquiao is salivating to get his paws on Floyd Jr. If there were a way that both Sr. and Jr. could be in the ring at the same time, it's safe to say that Pacquiao would welcome it. What trash-talking is to a lot of African-Americans, which for the most part is simply aimed at intimidation, to a Filipino warrior like Pacquiao, it's a promise. Floyd can bark all he wants, Pacquiao is ready to bite.

The question is, will it be a dog-fight if these two men do lace em up? Or will it be a cat-and-mouse, or should I say dog and pussie (cat) chase all night long? With Pacquiao's speed and unorthodox style however, I think it wouldn't really matter as much as a lot of people think it would. Sooner or later, Pacquiao will get to Mayweather. And I don't care how good of a defensive fighter you are, matter of fact, it might even amount for more against Floyd who isn't used to getting hit. Once one of Pacquiao's left "See you at the Karaoke Party" punches land flush on an opponent's jaw, it's over. And I don't see enough heart in Floyd to even get back up and put up a fight like Miguel Cotto did when that happens. If I were Floyd Mayweather Jr., I'd be scared too.


For more Pacquiao vs Mayweather news updates, visit http://pacquiao-vs-mayweather.cebuspace.com/.

Source: examiner.com

Manny Pacquiao prefers basketball to boxing, says Roach


By Gareth A. Davies - Revelation from trainer Freddie Roach about fighter-turning-politician Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao might be spoken about at present as one of the greatest boxers ever, yet Roach revealed to me: “Deep down, Manny prefers basketball to boxing. It’s his favourite sport, more so than boxing. He did an advert with Kobe Bryant, but he doesn’t like watching the LA Lakers. He likes to play basketball rather than watch it.” “He gets to play basketball up to four weeks before a fight; and he wants to play every day. It makes me nervous. He puts it all in when he plays. He could so easily break a finger or turn an ankle. But he loves it so much that if I told him not to play – he’d do it anyway behind my back.”

“So I work out a deal with him, and we agree that he can play basketball up to a month before a fight. Then his word is good. No one can tell Manny P what to do anymore, but you can negotiate with him.”

For more Pacquiao vs Mayweather news updates, visit http://pacquiao-vs-mayweather.cebuspace.com/.

Source: blogs.telegraph.co.uk

Fight analysis: 4 boxers who outfought Mayweather, Jr (Part 1)

By Marv Dumon - Intro: Many boxing analysts and gamblers initially peg Floyd Mayweather, Jr (40-0) as a slight betting favorite over WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (50-3-2). These odds are sensible, and probably correct. It's tough to argue with an omnipotent marketplace.

However, we explore four boxers that have given Mayweather, Jr (either temporary or sustained) problems in the ring. There are several potential reasons for avoiding the welterweights in his division. Floyd encountered problems with these four boxers, and those avoided welterweights would exacerbate Floyd's tactical risks. These lessons can be leveraged by Freddie Roach and Manny Pacquiao, and lay the foundation for a strategic war plan.

Tale of the Tape:

Age: Manny: 31 Floyd: 33 ( By fight night )

[No advantage for either fighter. Floyd is a fresher fighter. Manny has been more active.]

Height: Manny: 5' 6.5" Floyd: 5' 8"

[Slight advantage for Mayweather, Jr. Manny can somewhat negate this advantage by fighting low, as well as, by bobbing and weaving which could expose Floyd's body to pugilistic explosions.]

Reach: Manny: 67" Floyd: 72"

[Herein lies Manny's biggest disadvantage - he gives up a 5 inch reach against a fighter with the best jab in the sport, both in quickness and accuracy. This factors into Floyd as an early betting favorite.]

Official Weigh-in: Manny: 145 lbs (est) Floyd: 147 lbs (est)

[Undoubtedly, the weight limit is a main negotiating point between both camps. Top Rank's Bob Arum will fight for 145 lbs, while Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions will aim for a full 147 lb welterweight weight limit. This is a big variable in the fight. Floyd officially weighed in against Juan Manuel Marquez at 146 lbs, suggesting that he may be uncomfortable coming in at 145 lbs.]

Fighting Weight: Manny: 150 lbs (est) Floyd: 157 lbs (est)

[Size is Manny's second disadvantage. However, the bigger opponent in this case will be just as fast, and just as smart. Floyd can adjust to an opponent's gameplan in real time. While Manny is a master in his own right, Freddie Roach's advice for adjustments during the fight comes in three-minute intervals, at the end of each round. Something Floyd does not have to wait for. This makes Roach's and Pac's initial battleplan going into the fight that much more critical for success. Most likely, they will concoct a Plan A, a Plan B, and a Plan C so that Manny, like Floyd, can also adjust in real time.]

# 1

2002: Jose Luis Castillo 1

Rounds 5 and 6




Rounds 10 and 11




Analysis: In rounds 5 and 6, Mexican lightweight champion Jose Luis Castillo brilliantly lures Mayweather into a physical fight. Castillo played rough, and boxed dirty - holding Mayweather and often hitting him late (after a referee's break). A roughed up Mayweather underwent spurts of ineffectiveness, and there were times in which he was simply uncomfortable being inside the ring. However, it must also be noted that this fight took place in 2002 and Floyd has since morphed into a defensive wizard.

In rounds 10 and 11, Floyd was forced to aggressively fight Castillo due to the closer than expected scorecards. Against Manny, Floyd's foremost priority will be to win the early rounds in order to avoid direct engagement with the southpaw dynamo. The Filipino packs a more powerful punch than Castillo. Additionally, Pacquiao's unorthodox style, weaving attack, and blazing speed pose more problems. This dynamic (the perceived scores entering the final rounds) is the most critical variable to how the fight plays out in the pound-for-pound "championship rounds."

Comments: If Pacquiao should emerge victorious against Mayweather, and that's an if, the first Castillo fight serves as a shining expose into Floyd's major weakness. He is a fragile fighter with a suspect chin, and he will wear down later in the rounds. "Master" Roach knows this. Floyd will be bigger than Manny - effectively a junior middleweight - but the dynamic Pacquiao also packs explosive power in both fists.

Did Floyd really beat Castillo in the first bout? Officially yes. Unofficially, that is debatable. The statistics are shockingly revealing. Through the first nine rounds, both men were just as accurate with power punches (Castillo, 44% to Mayweather, 43%). However, Castillo landed a whopping 98 power shots out of 228 thrown to Floyd's 37 of 87 power shots. Castillo's higher work rate was effective against Floyd. It was a close call for the three judges. Floyd won a hotly contested decision.

Lesson # 1.1: Floyd will need to make Manny pay for being the more active fighter. That is accomplished through timing Manny when he moves in, with accurate and quick jabs from a safe distance, and counters. Unfortunately for Pacquiao's camp, Floyd is the best fighter in the sport to accomplish all three. If Floyd can do these three things (timing, accurate jabs, and counters) for the first three or four rounds, the fight is over. And Manny will break down by round 8.

Lesson # 1.2: Conversely, Castillo has provided Roach and Pacquiao with a template for putting a serious hurt on Floyd. Manny's power in both hands, combined with a higher work rate, can both wear down the bigger opponent as well as impress judges. The latter will be more critical. Because this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Here, three judges will decide who wins the "Fight of the Century."

Caveat: The Floyd version that fought Marquez is much better and bigger than the Floyd who showed up to fight Castillo.

# 2

2006: Zab Judah

Round 1


Round 2




Judah's size is very similar to Pacquiao's. Zab stands at 5' 7" tall, with a 22" arm length (compared to Floyd's 26" arm length). However, a relatively stationary Judah appeared to have outboxed Mayweather, Jr with jabs. Then-welterweight champion Judah's quick jabs landed on Floyd despite having shorter arms.

Due to the scoring favor the first couple of rounds, Floyd was forced to adjust and fight more aggressively. Unfortunately for Judah, he simply could not keep up with Mayweather's handspeed and skills.

During the second round, Zab caught Floyd with a lightning quick right as Mayweather lunged forward. This should have been scored a knockdown (which it was not) since Floyd's gloves grazed the ring. This punch underscores Floyd's vulnerability as a fighter when he attacks. Manny will have opportunities to counter Floyd. However, the flip side is also true. Manny will be vulnerable to Floyd's counters, especially if Manny fully commits on his jabs. Think Erik Morales 1 and the fights with Juan Manuel Marquez.

Lesson # 2.1:

If Judah could land on this version (2006) of Floyd, so can Manny. Mayweather is an orthodox right-handed boxer (with his left as his lead front hand). He is surprisingly vulnerable to the body when he chooses to have a more offensive stance. However, Mayweather had a pretty squared up shoulder in facing Zab, and used less of a shoulder roll defense. In other words, Floyd was not defensively oriented during the first two rounds. This may, or may not, be the case versus a dangerous southpaw like Manny. Therefore, we should be careful from comparing apples and oranges.

The Judah fight does show that Floyd is hittable, even when backing up. Remember, Judah fought with a 22" arm length (similar to Manny's 23") compared to Floyd's 26". Was this part of a brilliant strategy by the Mayweather camp to draw in Judah - to make him come forward? Possibly. This may have been a trick/ploy from Floyd. By being aggressive himself, he invited Judah's attack so Floyd could outclass him with accurate counters. As Judah grew in (false) confidence, Floyd outboxed Judah in the later rounds. Roach and Pacquiao may have used this same strategy against Cotto. Manny pretended to be vulnerable in the first two rounds to invite Cotto forward, and to make Cotto vulnerable by letting the Puerto Rican throw his lead left jabs (his best punch, along with the left hook to the body). This allowed Manny to outclass an opened up Cotto, who became susceptible to counters to the body from Manny's left, and to blows to the head from Manny's right hook.

Lesson # 2.2: The outcome of Manny Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather, Jr will be decided in the first four rounds (with an estimated 80% confidence level). Just like chess - how you open up the board dictates how the pieces will be positioned and played for the duration of the game. The opening determines two military principles: (1) the operational tempo - the "rhythm," and speed with which your forces engage the enemy. For instance, the U.S. Navy Seals have a "shock and awe" tempo against its adversaries. And, (2) the "center of gravity" - where your forces/power are concentrated. Is the "center of gravity" to the left, to the right, in the middle, against the ropes, is it dispersed? Roach will want a definable and tangible center of gravity. Floyd will want a dispersed and undefinable center of gravity. At the very least, Floyd wants a dynamic and constantly shifting center of gravity so that his accurate punches can slow down and/or stop a probably advancing Pacquiao.

Analogy:

A good analogy to use is this. Manny is like a roving tank looking to bulldoze his enemy once engaged - or if he can engage at all. Floyd will be hiding with his camouflage uniform setting up all kinds of landmines and anti-personnel devices to (hopefully) blow up that roving tank.

Samurai vs Ninja.

If there is a deciding factor for either fighter in the first four rounds, that reveals our winner (again, probably with an 80% confidence level). The main unpredictability in the later rounds comes with Manny's capability of knocking down Floyd once - which would alter the scorecards.

Lesson # 2.3: A peak-shape Pacquaio probably enjoys less than a 10% or 15% chance of stopping a full-fledged junior middleweight Floyd by KO or TKO. Floyd will not stop Manny either (The Filipino was able to walk through Miguel Cotto's heaviest blows), unless of course Floyd lands a tremendous punch (which is possible). By Manny in peak-shape, we mean that Manny is not training in Baguio City, Cebu, or Manila.

It will be a highly foolish and over-confident move by Team Pacquiao to train in the Philippines for this fight. Unfortunately for the People's Champ, he is constantly being bothered by "yes men," a** kissers, parasites, useless hangers on, beggars, and others pitching business deals. Manny has indicated that he would like to train in the Philippines for his next fight. From a political and business standpoint, this is prudent. He has roughly $10 million in campaign funds at stake for his May 2010 congressional electoral bid - and in his first campaign in 2007, it was reported that people simply stole his political war chest.

However, in terms of boxing, training in the Philippines will be a colossal strategic blunder against Floyd Mayweather, Jr. The Mayweather camp knows this and have their fingers crossed. Manny may be a seven time titlist in seven weight classes, but this is an area where the Titanic will be sailing full speed in the northern Atlantic confident that it can crush anything in its path, including glaciers. Congressional candidate Pacquiao may win an election. But if he goes down this path of distraction, he will lose the fight of the century. As Roach said, Manny is incapable of succeeding in both (at the same time). This will be a critical power struggle to watch and follow. That is, the power struggle between Pacquiao and Roach. Because we can already surmise that Manny will insist on Baguio or somewhere else in the Philippines. Roach will try to do what is best - he may be called "Master," but he may only have partial control of training now, at this stage of Manny's career. Training in the archipelago would be suicidal against Floyd.

The bombardment of distractions from politicians, the entertainment industry, and from the media will be enormous. History always gives us clues. When the Americans fought the Japanese in the second world war, did they place all their eggs in Bataan and Corregidor? No, at the last minute they pulled out key personnel (such as General Douglas MacArthur) in order to plan and stage a comeback. If this fight is scheduled for May or June, essentially Manny has a choice to make. Politics or boxing? Which one. Against the greatest defensive wizard of the past 10 years, this is a mutually exclusive choice. Even President Franklin Roosevelt had to make a choice. Germany or Japan? He prioritized Germany first. Then Japan. If the U.S. fought both theaters with equal prioritization at the same time, we may be yelling Heil Hitler! every morning today on our way to work or school.

Concentration of forces - center of gravity - is an inviolable principle of warfare. There are no exceptions to this rule. Zero. For thousands of years, this has been a tried and tested doctrine; from the days of warring Chinese kingdoms; to the Great Crusades that sought to free Jerusalem from the Muslims - and the use of enormously constructed siege towers; to Genghis Khan's use of heavy cavalry against fortified towns, to Hannibal the Annihilator using guerilla warfare and tactical advantages from the weather and landscape against the numerically superior ancient Roman legions; to Julius Caesar erecting two fortified walls to trap the numerically superior Gauls inside their city on a hill, and to prevent reinforcements from rescuing the trapped city. Will Manny learn the hard way? Four thousand years of history says "Yes."

The Pacquiao that embarrassed Oscar de la Hoya was probably the best version of Manny Pacquiao ever. That version was flawless, and better than the one who fought Miguel Cotto. Which brings us to our third boxer.

Caveat: The Floyd version that fought Marquez is much better and bigger than the Floyd who showed up to fight Castillo or Judah.

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Source: examiner.com